2009年3月29日星期日

Is the Economy Starting to Recover? Or Just Less Bad?




Could it be that things are beginning to get better for the U.S. economy?
But As the AIG continut to be bad .Nope, no real chance of that. But a spate of somewhat better-than-expected economic numbers this week and last has forecasters declaring that the pace of decline seems to have slowed.
Wednesday's stronger-than-expected data on durable-goods orders (up 3.4% in February, but from a January number that had been revised downward) was a "slim silver lining on the horizon," UniCredit Research economist Harm Bandholz wrote in a note to clients. But, he was quick to point out, "investment and exports continue to plummet."
From Paris to Shanghai to the whole mood of investors as well as the economic environment,completely different,because the European economy is still stable, emotionally U.S. downturn. But China's economy has shown signs of revival, the situation is much better than the external.6.7month data will be a noticeable pick-up. We can see from the Chinese of the three pillars of economic growth: net exports, fixed assets investment, consumption, a look at China's economy to recovery.
Another issue is that while there are signs that housing and consumer spending in the U.S. are no longer in the free fall of a few months ago, other parts of the economy are still in sharp decline. To quote Shepherdson again: "The epicenter of the recession has shifted from the consumer to the corporate sector." And it's possible that corporate cutbacks could lead to a relapse among consumers. "The main downside risk probably lies in sharper-than-expected multiplier effects via the dramatic deterioration in the labor market," warned Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius on Monday after predicting that consumer spending would rise for the rest of the year. "Both the weekly and monthly labor market indicators still show an accelerating employment contraction."
In other words, nobody really knows if we've hit a turning point yet. But it is at least ever so slightly encouraging that they're starting to talk about one.

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